Saturday, March 19, 2005

Weather on 3.19.2005

Slightly chilling morning - 40 degrees, calm sunny.

Awesome day out. Mid 60's. Sunny.

Calm night. 50's. Very light rain.

Friday, March 18, 2005

Weather on 3.18.2005

Finally, a let up on the cold streak. Extremely sunny morning. 35-40 degrees. Calm. Going to be in the 50's today. Stoked. Looks like it will be in the high 50s for the next week. Only next Wednesday is hurting.

High /
Low (°F) Precip. %
Today
Mar 18 Mostly Sunny 57°/35° 0 %
Sat
Mar 19 Mostly Cloudy 57°/41° 20 %
Sun
Mar 20 Few Showers 58°/37° 30 %
Mon
Mar 21 Partly Cloudy 52°/33° 10 %
Tue
Mar 22 Few Showers 51°/32° 30 %
Wed
Mar 23 Showers 43°/29° 40 %
Thu
Mar 24 Mostly Sunny 54°/41° 20 %
Fri
Mar 25 Partly Cloudy 59°/38° 20 %
Sat
Mar 26 Showers 56°/40° 30 %
Sun
Mar 27 Rain 54°/39° 60 %
Last Updated Mar 18 08:42 a.m. ET

9:05 pm - Great day outside, today!!! 60's, sunny, calm. You know its the first day of spring when you dog is playing fetch in the water. Woohoo!

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Weather on 3.17.2005

Really cloudy this morning. Very strange. Felt like a january day when its about to snow. Went over to Bobbie and Doug's to watch Griffin. We went to the playground. No wind thank God because I wasn't wearing enough clothing. Temp about 40, maybe couple degrees higher.

Get back, and learn that it was snowing south of here. Its gotten brighter here and you can see on the radar why:

weather 3.17.2005

Nighttime -- chilly. 5 mph winds. 28-32 degrees.

Kevin Myatt 3.17.2005

Falling vs. Melting
-------------------

10:30 a.m. Thursday: I'll be the first to tell you I'm surprised by the persistence of this potentially last burst of winter, and also by some of the accumulations in the area. I had 2 1/2 inches this morning at ,1600 feet in elevation in southern Botetourt County. Some places above 2,500 feet have double that, at least.


The snow was fueled by a second upper-level disturbance arriving on the southern jet stream from the west overnight. It proved to be pretty potent, and combined with the first disturbance and a developing surface low on the Atlantic Coast to keep the air moist enough to wring out quite a bit of snow.


We're probably in for several more hours of snow today -- but clouds and even falling snow will not deny the March sun. Temperatures are going to creep upward, and it won't have to creep far to start melting. In the lowest elevations in our region, you're already seeing clumps of snow break loose from the trees as temperatures slip above freezing.


Whether or not you get any more accumulation at your location depends on how fast it can fall vs. how fast it melts. This will be a function primarily of (A) snow intensity, (B) snow duration and (C) elevation.


A particularly heavy burst of snow can accumulate faster than the melt rate, and it can also at least temporarily drop the temperatures back toward freezing. Most of what we're going to see today is light to moderate snow, though I wouldn't rule out a burst of heavier snow that could add half an inch in a short time.


The longer it snows, the more it will act to arrest some of the temperature rise. Breaks in the snowfall allow more warming to occur. Continuous snow keeps pulling cooler air down from aloft.


But elevation is the most important factor. This has been an amazing event in that just 100 feet or so can make a huge difference in snow accumulation. In the Roanoke Valley, some places on hills had many more hours of snow last night than the lower spots near the Roanoke River.


My guesstimate breakdown for the Roanoke and New River Valley area is this: Below 1,500 feet, no additional accumulatoin as snowfall and melt will offset each other. Below 1200 feet, you'll have less by noon than you do now. 1,500-2,200 feet, expect about another inch until noon, when the warmth will begin offsetting snowfall. 2,200-feet plus -- expect 1-3 more inches today, with snow continuing to accumulate at least until midafternoon.


If you don't know your elevation, generally we're talking about the floor of the Roanoke Valley for the first, most of the New River Valley and the higher elevations in and around the Roanoke Valley for the second, and ridgetop areas like Bent Mountain for the third.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Winter Over? Kevin Myatt on 3.16.2005

Posted 4:00 p.m.: The snow has made it all the way down to the floor of the Roanoke Valley now.
Only about an hour ago, you could drive up and down some tall hills in the greater Roanoke metro area and go from snow to rain and back to snow. But finally, the atmsopheric column is cool enough all the way to the lowest part of the valley that it snowing -- moderately, even -- here in downtown Roanoke.
Temperatures are creeping downward, and I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some accumulation on grassy surfaces particularly at elevations 1,200 feet and higher. Elevations above about 2,200 feet have been getting some accumulation throughout the day, but it's slushy. If the steady snow continues past sunset, we might even see a tad of white in the valley.
Additional disturbances may re-trigger precipitation late tonight and Thursday. I maintain my belief that this round of snow, whenever it ends, will be our last widespread round of wintry precipitation until late in the year.
Enjoy it while it lasts. You'll be wanting some on those hot, humid summer days.
Posted 8:30 a.m.: So far, from a Roanoke Valley perspective, this is your typical "Bent Mountain Special" snow.
It's snowing up there right now, with 1-3 inches on the ground along the Blue Ridge Parkway. I know -- I was there this morning. As of 8:30 a.m., the elevation where snow began falling was 1,800 feet, and it started accumulating at about 2,200 feet. I measured 2 1/2 inches at one parkway overlook. So far, the parkway isn't closed because the snow isn't sticking on the road.
The bottom of the valley so far has seen light rain and drizzle, and not much of that. Heavier precipitation bands will be moving through this morning, and with evaporational and dynamic cooling in the relatively dry air mass that has taken all night to moisten, the snow level will start creeping downward.
Do not be surprised to see some fat snowflakes later this morning, even in Roanoke city, maybe even a period of moderate snow for a while.
It's going to have a hard time getting cold enough to stick, except maybe in grassy areas and car tops and such. Every foot of elevation above the valley floor increases your chances of seeing white on the ground. The top of Mill Mountain may very well end up with a layer of snow while the valley floor has little or no accumulation.
This is your typical March snow. It takes a lot to get the cold air far enough down to overcome what's left of yesterday's 50-degree warmth and the rising sun angle.
We have a couple of other little disturbances to watch over the next couple of days, but they look weak and as if they will move to our south.
Temperatures are going to begin moderating, anyway. By next week, we may see a lot more moisture come through -- and all of it will probably be good old-fashioned rain.
If you see snowflakes today, try to enjoy them if you like snow, and taunt their melting demise if you don't. They might be the last you see until next winter.

Weather on 3.16.2005 Take One

Sunny morning. Very high clounds in the sky. Calm. 30 degrees.

Cloudy afternoon. Still calm. Temp in high 40's.

Nighttime. 38. calm. but snowing in Roanoke....crazy stuff. see Kevin Myatt above.